We have an informal rule around the Root Simple offices: never talk about the weather. Why? Most of our readers are not local and the weather here in Los Angeles is boring and predictable. Usually it’s sunny and mild.
Severe drought makes our weather newsworthy. California grows a lot of food. In an essay about talking about the weather, Samuel Johnson reminds us that “it is the present state of the skies and of the earth, on which plenty and famine are suspended, on which millions depend for the necessaries of life.”
Due to the increasing weirdness of our weather I nervously check the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s forecasts with greater frequency than I used to. You would think that those NOAA forecasts would be devoid of humor. You would be wrong. As befits anyone who has to wrestle with a complex system, NOAA’s writings have a personal voice, especially when you click on the “Forecast Discussion” link to read a kind of raw discussion between NOAA scientists. Here’s a recent all-caps missive from a NOAA forecast discussion:
WOULD LOVE TO REPORT THAT THE LONG RANGE MDLS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT AND THAT THERE IS SOME SORT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THAT…HOWEVER…IS NOT THE CASE. EC TOOK A TURN FOR THE WEIRD AND DELAYS THE STORM TO TUESDAY. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SLOWER TOO. SO RIGHT NOW FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITS TO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY. RAIN MIGHT DEVELOP MONDAY OR IT MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY OR IF THE NEW EC IS CORRECT TUESDAY NIGHT. REALLY GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE LIKE RAY GUY AND PUNT THIS FCST INTO TOMORROW AND HOPE FOR SOME KIND OF AGREEMENT. FOR NOW JUST CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY THAT MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WILL BE WET. BOTH EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF DECENT RAIN JUST NO IDEA WHEN.
Not sure what “MAKE LIKE RAY GUY” means. Maybe it’s a typo? “Rain Guy” maybe? And I haven’t figured out the acronyms yet, but I love that the “EC TOOK A TURN FOR THE WEIRD.”
Dr. Johnson’s essay ends with a plea to take a stoic approach to unpredictable forces like the weather, “Every man, however he may distrust himself in the extremes of good or evil, might at least struggle against the tyranny of the climate, and refuse to enslave his virtue or his reasons to the most variable of all variations, the change of the weather.” Given that the weather here over the past few years has been oppressively hot, it may be time to start sewing up that caftan.
In the interest of breaking the Root Simple taboo about weather talk, where are you and what’s the weather like?
Copenhagen. 2 C, dark, steady wind from all directions. No precipitation. My daughter wants it to snow but that doesn’t seem likely at the moment.
I am in Greenville, SC today where it is sunny and a mild 65 degrees. The ten day forecast is not available at this time–but I suspect it will be continued fair with somewhat cooler temperatures for the next several days.
Ray Guy is a Hall of Fame punter that played for the Oakland Raiders.
Ha! Thanks for info.
Northeast US: Lots of snow last week which really mucked up Thanksgiving. January-like cold over the weekend, single digits at night, but now it’s around 50 degrees F and the snow is melting; mud everywhere. Time to run out into the yard and put away all the stuff we forgot to store before the winter.
Some snow forecast for later this week.
Happy December! Here in Madison WI it’s 10 F and sunny, the kind of cold that freezes nose hair and makes inhaling feel a bit crunchy.
I’m more than happy to talk about the weather because I teach it 😉
A couple translations: “GFS” is a weather prediction model (one of the “MDLS”). I’m not entirely sure what “EC” is but the context is that it’s another model, so it might be shorthand for the ECMWF model (which is already shorthand… but whatever).
You might like the info. on the Climate Prediction Center’s page (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)–looks like they expect a decent probability of above-normal precip. for you in the next couple months. I hope that doesn’t mean a lot of soil washout.
Northridge. Wasn’t yesterday terrific? My gardens are so happy. More!
California High Desert. Overcast and 60 right now. The scent of rain at 6 a.m. this morning but so far nothing. Maybe the San Bernardino Mts. got some moisture. Looking forward to Tues. now.
Here in Ohio, the weather is up and down. Unseasonable cold followed by warm-ups – kind of yo-yo-ing. It’s making our winter prep sort of hard – tomato cages are still up and my cabbage got snowed on last week. No shortage of precipitation here.
I’m a little south of Portland, OR, and it’s cold, in the upper 30’s….not dry cold, which is not so bad, but damp cold, which is really chilling. We’re staying indoors and keeping the fire going, but might get out for a brisk (BRISK, I say) walk later.
I am in Tucson and it is sunny and warm as normal. Well a bit warmer than normal. I’m still growing tomatoes…
Wanganui, North Island, New Zealand – on the West coast. 14 Celsius. It has been a long cool spring with lots of wind and rain. My garden is still looking good, tomato plants, zucchini and runner beans all with small fruit. Hoping for a much warmer month to sweeten up the strawberries.
I’m a few miles east of Cincinnati OH. It is 34 degrees with light rain/sleet, that is supposed to transition to freezing rain overnight. No significant accumulation expected, but probably enough to cause a string of fender-benders on every major roadway in the tri-state. This will turn my usual 25 minute race to work into a leisurely 2 hour crawl. That’s enough time to listen to a few CDs all the way through, and finish my coffee! Bring it on!
Middle of the Mitten. A bit colder than ‘normal’ here, 30* F daily, with lows around 20* F. It was quite warm (upper 40s and damp) over the weekend and SUPER cold before that (in the ‘teens). Up/down, Up/down… wait 5 minutes and the weather’ll change! No real snow yet, but we’ll see if it’s as bad as last year was. We’re used to the Great Lakes moderating our temps and moisture for us, making our weather milder than the surrounding states, but if they freeze over again, we’re screwed.
I’m a weather nerd and am always interested in hearing what is happening elsewhere. The droughts the USA (particularly south and Cali) are just awful and scary, scary stuff. Everyone wants that green lawn, but forgets that the majority of our food comes from the central valley. If there’s no water to grow, there’s no food to eat. *THANKFUL* we’re surrounded by massive amounts of fresh water.
Tuesday morning on California’s Central Coast and it’s been raining through the night.
Flying back up to the Portland area today, funny to see that I will leave a damp Los Angeles to a dry Portland weather forecast. The local Portland news has been noting a noon forecast of ‘mild lunch’ lately which I like the sound of.
Fairbanks, Alaska. Chilly at around 0 degrees F. FINALLY getting some snow after a very mild, dry November.
Glad to hear I’m not the only one entertained by the NOAA forecast descriptions. 🙂 One time, I clicked on a ‘short term forecast is in effect’ link to see what hazardous weather was on its way, but all it said was ‘some sprinkles may move into the area over the next several hours.’ A sprinkle warning!
The weather here in Denver has been mild–50s during the day, 30s overnight. It’s nice to be able to get the chickens some pasture time in December!